This paper attempts to study the political economic situation in the south asian region in a new light. Southeast asia military modernization, arms race, arms. Examples of arms races since the early 20th century. Dont blame just china for escalating the arms race in outer. Policy report americas third offset strategy new military technologies and implications for the asia pacific peter dombrowski june 2015. Pdf nuclear arms race in south asia muhammed yusen.
The security competition between india and pakistan has been characterised by an actionreaction spiral. The analyses reveal that arms races increase the likelihood of disputes and war. Mar 29, 2016 comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia. Comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia. With china embroiled in territorial disputes with both japan and. Numerous media outlets and observers have interpreted these changes in the regions arms dynamics as indicators of an arms race in southeast asia.
After the second world war, the arms race continued its endless upward spiral, and was by now primarily a race to develop nuclear weapons and the means of delivering them. There is growing concern that southeast asia is in the midst of a regional arms race. It is, therefore, but natural for the strategic community and the international community at large to wonder if asia has indeed entered into a sustained arms race with its inevitable consequences or whether the current military buildup across the region only corresponds to a policy of good fences make good. Understanding the arms race in south asia carnegie. However, studies on military expenditures by india and pakistan have produced no unanimity of view on whether an arms race existed historically, let alone today. As it stands, china has responded to these initiatives by accelerating its military modernization, in addition to the pace of islandbuilding in the south china sea. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of nonproliferation 4 the united state is the major culprit in the erosion of the npt. Science asias space race could turn into an arms race the current space race in asia, mainly between china, japan, and india, could kyle niemeyer dec 12, 2011 2.
Nuclearization of south asia and the future of non. Compared to the period 20062011, vietnam s arms imports. According to chinese statements, the purpose of the countrys nuclear. Cccpasccpublications 20122012%20021%20submarine%20proliferation%20rev. The prospect of an arms race is interlinked with the broader context in which these changes are taking place. Asia s naval buildups through the lens of history bruno hellendorff and thierry kellner a revised version of the 1921 washington conference could prove useful in facilitating dialogue in the face of ongoing naval modernisation in the asia pacific. The next arms race the nonproliferation policy education center. Bbc news south asia south asia arms race is it paranoia. The claims and realities this paper sets out to challenge the conventional wisdom that structural factors consist of the china threat, and that the ongoing south china sea disputes are the prime factors in the current military buildups in southeast asia. The world s biggest arms importers over the last five years are all in asia, the sipri report emphasized. The southeast asian arms race council on foreign relations. Many countries in the asia pacific, enabled by rising defence budgets and aggressive marketing by major arms producing states, have since the middle of the 1990s greatly expanded their war.
As the regions economies become stronger, defence budgets are rising and navies are expanding and modernising. Since longstanding territorial and border disputes remain most notably in the south china sea and the twin threats of. As i will explain in an upcoming newsweek piece i will post once its out, over the past five years southeast asia has been the center of an. Arms imports by individual southeast asian states show a similar picture. Arms, transparency and security in southeast asia sipri. These platforms and weapons combine effective damage with mobility and. Ideally, the best measure of whether the two are in fact in a classic, reciprocal nuclear arms competition would be the rate at which both sides are. During those years, no major periodicals proclaimed an arms race in asia. Yet, for northeast asia at least, the military budget increases were more dramatic at that time than in the early 1990s. Sep 01, 2014 understanding the arms race in south asia the apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in india and pakistan has led many analysts to warn of an impending arms race between the two countries. At present, the us has deployed 19 ships which have antitank missiles, two antimissile batteries thaad, three antiaircraft missile battalions and five mobile radars, and washington is expanding its.
If there is no arms race in east asia, then many of the conventionally accepted arguments about asian security and american grand strategy in the region need to be revised. Procurement programmes in asia appear to be focused on asymmetric. The liaoning is part of a threeway arms race involving the naval forces of china, japan, and the other big asian power, india. The arms race concept is also used in other fields. One of the things that is different about arms races now is the presence of increasing returns in the. Asias space race could turn into an arms race ars technica. Jul 25, 2006 i do not believe that the concerns of an arms race in the report will have any impact when it comes to congress for passing the usindia nuclear agreement, or for that matter, the uspakistan f16 sale, maintains christine fair, south asia expert and senior research fellow at the united states institute of peace. Chinas increasingly aggressive behaviour in the pacific is frequently cited as the trigger for this leap in arms.
Several scholars have applied this model to south asia directly to test for empirical evidence of an arms race. Looking at southeast asia specifically, concerns about a potential regional arms race first emerged in the 1980s, when the regional air forces started to acquire supersonic combat aircraft for the first time. Soviet cold war nuclear arms race, occurs when countries increase their military forces to gain superiority over one another. Many countries in the asia pacific, enabled by rising defence budgets and aggressive marketing by major arms producing states, have since the middle of the 1990s greatly expanded their war fighting capacities beyond the mere modernisation of their armed forces. Asias naval buildups through the lens of history bruno hellendorff and thierry kellner a revised version of the 1921 washington conference could prove useful in facilitating dialogue in the face of ongoing naval modernisation in the asiapacific. Explaining recent southeast asian military acquisitions in contemporary southeast asia by. The resulting arms competition, or arms dynamic, has at least the potential to contribute to a classical security dilemma, a situation whereby actions taken by a country can actually undermine the security and stability that they were meant to increase. Us provoking arms race in asia pacific region russia. Near the end of the cold war the soviet union was spending around 27% of its total gross national product on the military. Reexamining the politico economic fabric of south asia in a new light isbn. In this case, a rapid arms buildup from the 1950s onward, spurred by such mistaken beliefs as the missile gap on the us side, did not result in war between the two states. How do the militarized nations of east asia view each other.
To anyone who combines an interest in defence policymaking with a regional focus on southeast asia, it must be obvious that a wide range of factors combine. While such purchases are intended to aid deterrence and defence, they may have the unintended consequences of undermining. In other words, arms race stability is something that the south asian nuclear dyad has yet to. It is, therefore, but natural for the strategic community and the international community at large to wonder if asia has indeed entered into a sustained arms race with its inevitable consequences or whether the current military buildup across the region only corresponds to. Reexamining the politico economic fabric of south asia. Fueled by dramatic economic growth, the nations of east and southeast asia are engaged in an arms race that shows every sign of accelerating. My concern, is that although japan in my opinion is only acting in selfinterest, and in a rational, calculated manner in which to preserve its sovereignty and national interest, other actors including north korea, and china may perceive this as an act of belligerence and signalling a new arms race. Samina ahmed, project director for south asia at the international crisis group, argued that the nuclear arms race between india and pakistan is hugely destabilizing and, coupled with. Understanding the arms race in south asia the apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in india and pakistan has led many analysts to warn of an impending arms race between the two countries. Military modernisation and m i buildup in the asia pacific. Threat assessment brief analysis on effective policy responses to weaponsrelated security threats. Dont blame just china for escalating the arms race in outer space.
Whatever the case may be, most observers treat the concept of an arms race in asia as selfevidently negative. The asia pacific region is likely to be the fulcrum of international security affairs in the twentyfirst century. Yes, southeast asian states are bulking up their militaries but that doesnt necessarily translate to an arms race. The japanese navy is evolving to combine enhanced capabilities to. However, the discussion in this article is limited to military arms races. In the past decade, military spending by the regions states has risen by 57 percent on average. One example of an arms race is the dreadnought arms race between germany and britain prior to world war i. These countries are importing not only complex weapon systems but, more important, the technology with which to manufacture them. In an effort to resist the soviet occupation and the spread of marxist ideology to afghanistan, the united states then at the height of a nuclear arms race with the. However, while changes in southeast asia s regional arms dynamics remain below the threshold of an arms race, they do amount to more than a maintenance of the status quo. Arms races as exemplified by the accumulation of stocks of weapons represent a very special case of weapons as an instrument of power. Today, the main recipient region of arms imports is asiaoceania, which accounts for some 42% of global imports nearly as much as the middle east and europe together. China, japan, and indias asian arms race bloomberg. A new arms race in the asiapacific the international.
Pakistans quest for security ghazala yasmin jalil abstract the paper examines the nuclear arms race in south asia. The soviet defence industry willingly and enthusiastically joined in the game, although it has to be admitted that, in almost every heat of the race, the ussr was the runnerup. Most news coverage of security issues focused on north koreas nuclear program and the difficulties in the u. In the early 20th century, germany as a rising power. Compared to the period 20062011, vietnam s arms imports increased almost sevenfold. Pacific, south asia has great potential for an arms race and for explosive conflict. Defense companies are profiting as a major arms race is taking place all over the region. While claiming to be protecting the world from proliferation threats in iraq, libya, iran and north korea they also have abandoned past pledges and now threaten first use of nuclear weapons against non. Asias new arms race as china grows wealthier and builds up its military, other nations in the region are taking noteand amassing weapons of their own. According to the stockholm international peace research institute, global transfers of arms increased by 8. The great arms race in caspian sea central asia the leaders of the five caspian sea littoral states azerbaijan, iran, kazakhstan, russia and turkmenistan frequently talk about the need for peace and security in the caspian region. They both spent billions and billions of dollars trying to build up huge stockpiles of nuclear weapons.
One is the important arms race of the nations of the gulf, including iraq, iran, syria, saudi arabia, kuwait, and the gulf states, that was both stimulated by and resulted in wars in the region, including the iraniraq war and the iraqi invasion and annexation kuwait, with the resulting war to liberate it. A new arms race is exploding into asia, with an expensive and extensive shopping list of new weapons. The final classic example is the nuclear arms race between the soviet union and the united states. The pentagon is also actively deploying powerful thaad antimissile systems in the asia pacific region provoking an arms race in the region. Certainly many nations in the region have been on a veritable shopping spree for advanced conventional. Dont blame just china for escalating the arms race in. Apr 28, 2015 contrary to popular perceptions, the space race is not just because of any one country in asia. China plays a critical role in fueling south asia s nuclear arms race. India and pakistan are indeed entangled in a longstanding security competition. Furthermore, to account for the possibility that the arms race to war relationship may be spurious to dyadic hostilities accounting for both arms races and war, a selection model is employed that differentiates between dispute and war processes.
During the cold war the united states and the soviet union became engaged in a nuclear arms race. New military technologies and implications for the asia pacific peter dombrowski. Theres an arms race afoot in southeast asia, but what are the chances that americas defense companies will be. A new arms race is exploding into asia, with an expensive and. The reason for the rapidly rising arms purchases in asia, says sipri s asia expert, siemon wezeman, is that there are quite a lot of threats in asia. Sep 04, 2017 my concern, is that although japan in my opinion is only acting in selfinterest, and in a rational, calculated manner in which to preserve its sovereignty and national interest, other actors including north korea, and china may perceive this as an act of belligerence and signalling a new arms race. Similarly, there was an arms race between the united. Asia pacific was the second largest destination of u.
This, quite simply, is not the first time that concerns about arms races in asia have emerged. That suggestion has raised concerns that it might lead to an arms race, with japan and south korea building nuclear weapons to. The book will be of great interest to students of asian politics, strategic studies, defence studies, security studies and ir in general. A new study found jpmorgan and bofa are winning wall streets technological arms race and smaller firms may have no choice but to merge to keep up. During an interview on cnn in october 2017, former us secretary of state hillary clinton agreed, asserting that we will now have an arms race a nuclear arms race in east asia. The arms race in asia concludes that if the emerging arms race is left unchecked, it is likely that asia will increasingly become a region of instability, marked by conflicts and interstate wars. The deeply ingrained, traditional hostility between india and pakistan accentuates the dangers inherent in a south asian nuclear proliferation. Dec 20, 2017 defense companies are profiting as a major arms race is taking place all over the region. A new arms race explaining recent southeast asian military. Although it is not on the scale of the cold war, the military buildup is one of the clearest indicators of a lack of confidence of the nations of the asia. Territorial disputes drive arms race in east asia japan forward.
Mar 15, 2017 territorial disputes drive arms race in east asia. We have argued that arms races in the twentyfirst century will be very different from the cold war arms race. As china expands its influence in the disputed south china sea, an arms race has developed among other nations with claims in the area. Aug 16, 20 the liaoning is part of a threeway arms race involving the naval forces of china, japan, and the other big asian power, india. Cccpasccpublications20122012%20021%20submarine%20proliferation%20rev. The question of whether we are entering a period of arms races and security. Fearon department of political science stanford university draft march 24, 2011 abstract i consider a model of arming in which states choose in successive periods whether to build weapons and. Pdf on feb 18, 2019, nawab sher and others published arms race in south asia. Contrary to popular perceptions, the space race is not just because of any one country in asia. The hostility between india and pakistan is believed to have led to an arms race between the two countries, which might have contributed to their retarded economic growth. Certainly many nations in the region have been on a veritable shopping spree for advanced conventional weaponry, and this has been enabled by a corresponding increase in military spending. A new arms race explaining recent southeast asian military acquisitions article in contemporary southeast asia a journal of international and strategic affairs 321.
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